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DHS National Level Exercise

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Post by Paul2CV Mon Feb 28, 2011 12:38 am

" Geologists are working to determine if the activity - dubbed the Guy Swarm - is caused by pressurized liquid injected into the ground by natural gas drillers or if it is a natural occurrence. "

Hi LawAbiding & Forum,

The issue of earthquakes in Arkansas in terms of their frequency and cause has made for some interesting news. One persistent view is that the contributing cause is gas drilling via hydraulic fracturing. Here is an excerpt from an article at Inteldaily: (The link to the whole story is found at the end.)

Fracking the life out of Arkansas and beyond
JANUARY 7, 2011
By Rady Ananda

The last four months of 2010, nearly 500 earthquakes rattled Guy, Arkansas. The entire state experienced 38 quakes in 2009. The spike in quake frequency precedes and coincides with the 100,000 dead fish on a 20-mile stretch of the Arkansas River that included Roseville Township on December 30. The next night, 5,000 red-winged blackbirds and starlings dropped dead out of the sky in Beebe. Hydraulic fracturing is the most likely culprit for all three events, as it causes earthquakes with a resultant release of toxins into the environment.

A close look at Arkansas’ history of earthquakes and drilling reveals a shocking surge in quake frequency following advanced drilling. The number of quakes in 2010 nearly equals all of Arkansas’ quakes for the entire 20th century. The oil and gas industry denies any correlation, but the advent of hydrofracking followed by earthquakes is a story repeated across the nation. It isn’t going to stop any time soon, either. Fracking has gone global.

Hydraulic fracturing (fracking) pumps water and chemicals into the ground at a pressurized rate exceeding what the bedrock can withstand, resulting in a microquake that produces rock fractures...
Read the rest at:


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Post by Paul2CV Sun Feb 13, 2011 10:27 pm

Hi LawAbidingCitizen,

Very interesting post. This subject is hard to get one's head around. Firstly, there's the issue of assessing the actual level of risk. has some interesting back and forth on that subject.
Then there is the more basic issue of insurance itself. How much is someone willing to pay relative to the risk and to what extent is the insurance available. Right now it seems like there are decent policies to be had from several sources. But there is clearly a movement toward caution in the industry:

Earthquake disaster looms in Midwest
Last updated Dec. 7, 2009
A devastating earthquake — 7.0 on the Richter scale or greater — has 5 to 9 percent chance of hitting the New Madrid Seismic Zone in the next 15 years, according to the Center for Earthquake Research and Information at the University of Memphis. The New Madrid Seismic Zone includes parts of Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee.
"Just about any severe earthquake would be a total disaster."
Experts predict an earthquake of that magnitude will do at least $6 billion in damage, and Jim Mooney, president of the Inland Marine Underwriters Association, an industry trade group that advises insurance companies, says, "Just about any severe earthquake would be a total disaster."
Region is woefully unprepared
"There aren't that many earthquake-resistant structures [in the zone]," says Mooney. Ron Padgett, director of Kentucky's Division of Emergency Management, confirms that there are not enough structures in his state that meet earthquake-safety standards, which presents a looming disaster for homeowners and businesses. In addition, "because of the soil characteristics of [western Kentucky], a mid-winter earthquake would be significant in terms of disabling roadways, railways, pipelines, and water transport," he says.
"We're not as ready as we could be," says Jim Wilkinson, mitigation planner at the Central United State Earthquake Consortium, a group that advocates and implements earthquake-awareness and risk-mitigation programs in the New Madrid area. "It's unfortunate we live in a crisis-driven society and we don't do anything until it happens."
Earthquake possibilities in the New Madrid zone
Probability in the next 15 years (%)
Probability in the next 50 years (%)
[For percentages and full article see:]
The Central United States Earthquake Preparedness Project (CUSEPP) published a study in October 1985 that outlines the kind of damage that would be done if a 7.6 magnitude earthquake shook the New Madrid Seismic Zone. CUSEPP projects that if the quake occurred during the day, deaths in six cities in the New Madrid zone — Memphis, Tenn., Paducah, Ky., Carbondale, Ill., Evansville, Ind., Poplar Bluff, Mo., and Little Rock, Ark. — would be in the thousands. If the quake were to hit at night, death tolls would measure in the hundreds.
The study also concludes that over 270,000 people would be forced from their residences by quake damage and every public utility system — electric, gas, water, and sewer — would be unavailable after the quake.
Padgett tells that not enough buildings in Kentucky meet earthquake-resistance standards.
Damages could run upwards of $80 billion, a sum that could devastate the insurance industry.
A 1998 study conducted by the Insurance Information Institute (III) concludes that "insured losses could reach $60 billion in part because homeowners and businesses have failed to take steps to mitigate potential earthquake damage." However, the study says that if a substantial quake were to shake a major population center, damages could run upwards of $80 billion, "a sum that could devastate the insurance industry."
Insurance companies ducking for cover
Most insurance companies writing earthquake insurance in the New Madrid Zone have either increased the deductibles on policies or stopped writing policies altogether. The III study also shows that deductibles of a whopping 15 percent of the policyholder's policy "are common in the highest seismic zones of the [New Madrid] area." In Missouri, coverage for commercial brick building has shot up 395 percent from 1997 rates.
State Farm Insurance Co., the largest home insurer in the nation, says policyholders can choose to pay between 2 and 10 percent of the value of their policy as a deductible. So, if you insure your home for $150,000 and it's damaged in an earthquake, you're responsible for as much as the first $15,000 worth of damage. State Farm also offers policyholders a flat deductible.
Number of State Farm earthquake policies by
state in the New Madrid Zone
If policyholders opt for a lower deductible, their premiums will be higher. State Farm spokesperson Phil Supple would not say how much the company charges for its quake insurance.
State Farm stopped writing new earthquake policies in 1996 in eight Tennessee counties: Crockett, Dyer, Lake, Obion, Haywood, Lauderdale, Shelby, and Tipton. The Memphis metro area comprises much of Shelby County and Memphis is one of the cities that would suffer from a New Madrid quake.
Supple tells that State Farm stopped writing new policies in those counties because it would not have been able to reasonably pay the claims from a quake. "We wouldn't be serving our policyholders in other areas. Say there was a stove fire in eastern Tennessee. We can't leave those people unprotected because we didn't have enough money in our reserves [because of earthquake claims]," he says.
Allstate Insurance Co. has also raised its deductible amounts and has stopped writing new policies that cover earthquake damage in some parts of Missouri.
Farmers Insurance Co. pulled out of Tennessee altogether in 1996, and does not sell quake insurance in Mississippi or Kentucky. The company is currently writing new earthquake policies in all of Indiana and Missouri, and the minimum deductible for those two states is 10 percent of the policy's value.
Farmers has also declared a moratorium on new policies in Arkansas and southern Illinois. However, customers who have existing policies in Arkansas and Illinois can renew.


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Post by mike Sun Feb 13, 2011 12:29 pm

Very interesting info. I have not heard of this but it doesn't surprise me.

LAC, welcome to the forum! We're glad to have your participation and value new members and the ideas and comments they bring. Hope to see you around the forum. Again, welcome!


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Post by LawAbidingCitizen Sun Feb 13, 2011 12:35 am

Given the number of small quakes that Arkansas has been having. What do you think about the Department Of Homeland Security's 2011 National Level Exercise being held in May? Info link below.


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